Economy and Security on the Ballot in Nigeria – 5 Things to Watch in Presidential Election

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Maruf Hassan
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Economy and Security on the Ballot in Nigeria – 5 Things to Watch in Presidential Election

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Voters in Africa’s largest democracy will go to the polls on Feb. 25, 2023, to pick a new president. While voter turnout has been on a steady decline in Nigeria for two decades, a recent surge of interest in politics and improvements to the election process have meant that 93 million Nigerians are now registered to vote. I have observed four Nigerian elections as part of domestic and international missions, and I also worked in the National Assembly shortly after the military stepped down in 1999. As an academic both at the University of Ibadan and now back in the U.S., I have researched Nigeria’s development, political history and electoral politics ever since. Each of Nigeria’s elections since the military dictatorship ended has been important in its own way. For example, the 2015 vote held special importance when the newly formed opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) defeated the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP). It was the first time in Nigeria’s history that one political party handed power over to another. Elections in 2019 overcame major logistical obstacles and security risks, and the swift passage of electoral reforms during Muhammadu Buhari’s second term increased public confidence in electoral processes. The presidential vote scheduled for this month will be consequential for Nigeria’s economy and national security. Here are five reasons the 2023 elections are unique and critical.

Religion less of a mobilizing force Nigeria is roughly evenly divided between Muslims and Christians, and religion plays a big role in electoral politics. For example, using a large national survey, I showed that Muslims were 56% more likely to vote for the Muslim candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, in 2015. Religion is often a tool for political mobilization, since northerners are Job Function Email List overwhelmingly Muslim and most southerners are Christian. This time around, the candidates from the two major parties are both Muslim, reducing the religious rhetoric on the campaign trail. Bola Tinubu of the APC and Atiku Abubakar of the PDP have therefore focused on other issues – such as insecurity and the economy – to mobilize voters and distinguish themselves from each other.

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There’s no incumbent This is only the second time ever that Nigeria has had a presidential vote without an incumbent running for reelection. This is good for democracy, since it suggests that presidents are yielding to popular support for constitutional term limits. It is certainly an improvement over President Olusegun Obasanjo’s failed attempt in 2006 to change the constitution so he could run for a third term. However, this situation also alters the dynamics of competition. One analysis of 22 years of African elections finds that ruling parties are only half as likely to win when the incumbent president is not in the running. This improves the PDP’s odds.. Labour candidate has energized young voters Peter Obi, who was Atiku Abubakar’s running mate in 2019, has emerged as a viable third-party candidate from the Labour Party. At 61, he is younger than the two leading candidates and hails from the overwhelming Christian southeast – where ethnic Igbos feel like they have been left out of presidential politics for decades. Former president Obasanjo surprised the nation by endorsing Obi rather than the candidate from the PDP, his party during his two terms. While some surveys targeting rural citizens show Obi ahead at the polls, conventional political science suggests he is unlikely to win. Nigeria’s electoral system, as in the U.S., makes it difficult for third-party candidates to succeed. But Obi’s momentum has been no surprise to Nigerians under 35, who constitute a staggering 40% of newly registered voters.
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